What Is Ecosystem Collapse?

An ecosystem collapses when it passes beyond a critical threshold or tipping point, after which it can no longer maintain its essential functions or structure. The ecosystem transitions—often irreversibly—from one stable state to another fundamentally different one. For instance, the Amazon basin collapse would see it shifting from rainforest to a drier savannah state.

Collapse impairs an ecosystem's ability to provide vital services: clean water, food production, climate regulation, pollination, and carbon storage. Unlike gradual degradation, collapse is potentially permanent—once crossed, the threshold cannot easily be un-crossed.

Planetary Boundaries: The Safe Operating Space

In 2009, Johan Rockström and colleagues at the Stockholm Resilience Centre identified nine planetary boundaries—the safe limits for human pressure on Earth's critical systems. As of 2023, six of the nine boundaries have been transgressed:

Operating beyond these boundaries doesn't mean immediate catastrophe—but it means we have moved out of the stable conditions that supported the development of human civilization over the past 10,000 years. The further we transgress, the greater the risk of triggering abrupt, irreversible environmental changes.

Critical Ecosystems Approaching Collapse

Coral Reefs

Status: Tipping point likely already crossed. The warm-water coral tipping point was crossed at approximately 1.2°C of global warming. In 2023-24, 84% of global coral reefs experienced bleaching-level heat stress. Coral reefs support 25% of all marine species and the livelihoods of 500 million people. Their collapse would devastate marine biodiversity and coastal food security, particularly in Southeast Asia.

There is a realistic possibility that coral reef ecosystems in Southeast Asia begin functional collapse from 2030.

The Amazon Rainforest

Status: Approaching tipping point. The Amazon is currently at approximately 17% deforestation. Research indicates collapse is projected at 20–25% deforestation combined with rising temperatures and increasing fire frequency. Collapse would transform the world's largest rainforest into a drier savannah state, releasing enormous amounts of stored carbon, disrupting continental water cycles, and reducing rainfall across South America's agricultural heartland.

A 2024 paper in Nature identified critical transitions already occurring in portions of the Amazon forest system. There is a realistic possibility of collapse beginning from 2050.

Boreal Forests

Status: Accelerating degradation. Boreal forests span Russia, Canada, and Scandinavia, storing vast quantities of irrecoverable carbon. Rising temperatures, increased wildfire frequency, and insect outbreaks are degrading these forests faster than they can regenerate. There is a realistic possibility that boreal forests start to collapse from 2030.

Congo Rainforest

Status: Degrading with significant data gaps. The Congo Basin is the world's second-largest tropical forest and a critical carbon sink. Increasing logging, agricultural expansion, and mining threaten its integrity, but monitoring data is limited compared to the Amazon.

Freshwater Ecosystems

Status: Most degraded ecosystem type globally. Freshwater species populations have declined 84% since 1970—the largest decline of any ecosystem type. Only one-third of the world's rivers remain free-flowing. Dam construction, water diversion, pollution, and overextraction have transformed aquatic ecosystems globally.

Mangroves

Status: Severely degraded, collapse projected from 2050. Mangroves protect coastlines, store carbon at rates 3–5 times higher than terrestrial forests, and serve as nurseries for marine species. They continue to be lost to aquaculture, coastal development, and rising sea levels.

National Security Implications

A 2024 UK national security assessment concluded that ecosystem degradation and collapse are direct threats to national security. The assessment's key judgements include:

• Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse without major intervention
• Cascading risks include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration, and increased inter-state competition for resources
• Ecosystem collapse would drive water insecurity, severely reduced crop yields, fisheries collapse, changes to global weather patterns, novel zoonotic diseases, and loss of pharmaceutical resources
• A one percentage point increase in food insecurity compels 1.9% more people to migrate
• Countries best placed to adapt are those that invest in ecosystem protection and restoration and resilient food systems

The Timeline

While there is high uncertainty around exact timing, the UK national security assessment provides this framework:

• Now–2030: Continued ecosystem degradation is highly likely. Coral reefs in Southeast Asia and boreal forests may begin to collapse.
• 2030–2050: Rainforests and mangroves may begin to collapse. Food production impacts intensify.
• Beyond 2050: Without major intervention, global ecosystem degradation continues to accelerate, with cascading security and economic consequences.

There is a realistic possibility that some tipping points have already been unknowingly crossed—and that irreversible collapse of some ecosystems (particularly coral reefs) is already inevitable, though impacts may not be visible for several years.

What Can Be Done

The UK assessment is clear: "Protecting and restoring ecosystems is easier, cheaper and more reliable" than developing technological alternatives. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework sets critical targets:

• Protect 30% of land and ocean by 2030
• 30% of degraded ecosystems under restoration by 2030
• Close the $700 billion biodiversity finance gap
• Reduce pesticide risks by 50%
• Eliminate or reform $500 billion in harmful subsidies

Meeting these targets would require meeting the Paris climate agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C—itself at risk.

OASA's Response: Building Resilience from the Ground Up

While global frameworks set targets, OASA creates the on-the-ground reality. Every OASA project is designed as a resilient node in a network of regenerating ecosystems:

• Perpetual protection: Perpetual commons legally ensure land can never be sold, privatized, or exploited—preventing the habitat conversion that is the primary driver of collapse.
• 50% rewilding: Every project dedicates at least half its land to rewilding, creating carbon sinks, biodiversity refuges, and water retention landscapes that buffer against climate extremes.
• Resilient food systems: Agroforestry and regenerative agriculture build soil health and food sovereignty, reducing dependence on fragile global supply chains.
• Scientific monitoring: eDNA monitoring tracks ecosystem health over time, providing early warning of degradation.
• Community resilience: Climate resilient communities designed to thrive under changing conditions, with self-sufficient food, water, and energy systems.

Key References

• Richardson, K. et al. (2023). "Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries." Science Advances.
• Rockström, J. et al. (2009). "A safe operating space for humanity." Nature.
• Flores, B.M. et al. (2024). "Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system." Nature.
• Lovejoy, T.E. & Nobre, C. (2018). "Amazon tipping point." Science Advances.
• Lenton, T.M. et al. (2023). The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter.
• UK Government (2024). "Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security." National security assessment.

Related Terms

• Biodiversity — The variety of all life on Earth and its current crisis
• Causes and Threats of Biodiversity Collapse — The five drivers and systemic forces
• Sixth Mass Extinction — The current extinction event
• Rewilding — Restoring natural processes and ecosystem function
• Climate Resilient Community — Communities designed for changing conditions
• Water Retention Landscapes — Restoring the hydrological cycle
• Regenerative Principles — The seven core principles guiding OASA projects
• 1000-Year Investment Horizon — Thinking beyond quarterly returns